The Early Winter Cold Air Mass Source Region

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Heading Into meteorological winter where is the early season cold air mass source region? Typically, early winter brings gathering arctic air masses in Siberia but not this year. The frigid and snowy early winter regime is locked-in over Alaska. Pieces of this air mass have ejected into the East U.S. in the current pattern although that risk is likely eliminated once we're into December.

Highlight: Where is the heating demand the next 15 days?

Discussion: Based on ALL forecast models and their gas population weight HDD projections over the next 15 days assembled by CWG/Storm Vista Weather Models we find that North America averages seasonably cold for the next week or so and turns warmer producing below normal heating demand the first week of December (Fig. 1). Where is the big demand (compared to normal) right now? The Europe 15-day forecast indicates above normal heating demand on a daily basis through the next 12-13 days (Fig. 2). Farther downstream in Russia, the pattern is mild as below normal heating demand is projected (Fig. 3). The minimal HDD values for Russia indicate the lead source region for arctic air (Siberia) is mild to start metrological winter. A period of above normal heating demand in Asia is ending and for Nov. 25-30 the national demand shifts to below normal (Fig. 4). Very cold air is somewhat limited to Alaska and vicinity in the 15-day forecast (Fig. 5).

Fig. 1: CWG/Storm Vista WX Models 15-day (daily) gas population weight HDD for North America.

Fig. 2: CWG/Storm Vista WX Models 15-day (daily) HDD for Europe.

Fig. 3: CWG/Storm Vista WX Models 15-day (daily) HDD for Russia.

Fig. 4: CWG/Storm Vista WX Models 15-day (daily) gas population weight HDD for Asia

Fig. 5: Northern hemisphere temperature anomalies identify Alaska as the cold air source region for the next 15 days.