Southern Brazil Cold Coffee Risk TUE/WED
06/22/2025, 1:33 pm EDT
Climate Impact Company Week 2-4 Outlook
Europe/Western Russia
Issued: Tuesday, June 24, 2025
Highlight: Europe heat shifts to the east, cool pattern is Russia eases. Plentiful heat ahead for mid-July.
Charts of the day: CFS V2 July 2025 Outlook
Discussion: The CFS V2 July 2025 climate forecast across Europe and Western Russia projects an upper-level high pressure system cresting over the Eastern Europe/Western Russia border. Previously issued ECM “weeklies” indicate the high pressure is slightly eastward. The sensible climate forecast projects widespread hot and dry weather across Central and East Europe, Ukraine, and Southwest Russia.
Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid June 29-July 5, 2025: Central/South Europe heat and dryness shifting eastward.
Discussion: The ongoing anomalous heat across Central and South Europe continues into early July while compensated for by unusually cool weather to the east of the Black Sea region northward to West-central Russia. Patchy thundershowers across Southwest Europe indicate the heat is eroding while the dry zone shifts eastward to Southeast Europe and Ukraine.
Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid July 6-12, 2025: Cooler change Europe; Heat into Southwest Russia.
Discussion: An upper trough drops into Western Europe bringing cooler changes while pushing the hot and dry weather to the Black Sea region and Western Russia. Showers and thundershowers ahead of the trough stretch from Poland to east of the Baltic States.
Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid July 13-19, 2025: Hot and dry Central/Southeast Europe to Southwest Russia.
Discussion: Mid-July brings a Southeast Europe to West-central Russia high-pressure ridge delivering hot weather for much of the region. Dryness is most dominant in France to Poland and Romania to Ukraine.