Global Soil Moisture 3-Month Trend Report

Fig. 1: The NOV-24 global soil moisture anomalies according to NOAA and 3-month trend.

Discussion: The NOV-24 global soil moisture anomaly analysis by NOAA reveals strongest drought across the Southwest U.S. while wettest conditions stretch across China to Pakistan (Fig. 1). During the past 3 months, a drier trend intensified Southwest U.S./Northern Mexico drought. A drier trend also stretched from the Midwest U.S. to the Coastal Northeast U.S. Corridor. Western Canada trends somewhat wetter. The Central America drought is over and the wet trend in this region extends to Florida and the western Caribbean Islands plus northwestern South America. The East Brazil drought eroded during the past 3 months. Wetter conditions were also observed in Argentina. However, Southeast Brazil and Uruguay trend somewhat drier. In Europe, a widespread wetter soil moisture trend was observed while Northwest Russia was drier. Central Africa wet soils expanded into the Ivory Coast and northward toward the Mediterranean Sea. Drought in East-central Africa intensified. Much of Asia is observing wet soils with a wetter 3-month trend extending from Pakistan to Northern China. Parts of East-central Russia were wetter. A narrow drier soil moisture trend emerged across southwest and south China. Western Indonesia trends drier while the Australia soil moisture profile is mostly unchanged during the past 3 months.

Brazil rainfall check: The GFS + ECM rainfall forecast for Brazil during the next 15 days is wet and trending wetter as the wet pattern is relentless. Previously, forecasts were indicating a wet shift into Southeast Brazil indicated in the 1-5-day forecast (Fig. 2). However, broad aerial coverage of rainfall continues in the medium range (Fig. 3-4) including areas previously expected to shift drier (Central to East Brazil).

Fig. 2-4: The GFS+ECM rainfall forecast for Brazil through 15 days.