The latest ECM and CFS V2 temperature analog forecasts for June are agreeable with hot risk in the Northwest/West U.S. and temperate eastward. The Climate Impact Company constructed analog has wider aerial coverage of the western warmth and a cooler East U.S. solution.

Negative Pacific North America (-PNA) pattern assures a cool regime in the West clashing with very warm temperatures in The Central and East to cause daily severe weather outbreaks into the weekend. Today, severe thunderstorms are forecast by NOAA/SPC from Texas to the Midwest States pulsing eastward to New England. The greatest tornado risk is located from Des Moines, IA to Chicago, IL. Tornado risk is evident in Oklahoma.

Summer 2025-26 produced a wet climate and soaking wet soils for central and southern continent where record wet conditions were observed. A drier pattern is indicated for the next few weeks. A climate shift into El Nino should promote a drier climate for next warm season.

The NOAA/CPC North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), arctic oscillation (AO), and Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) projection for the 11-15-day period support cooler changes in the East U.S. likely to be included in Sunday night/Monday morning medium-range forecasts.