The subtropical North Atlantic basin is warming significantly as September 1st approaches partly due to lack of tropical cyclones tracking through these waters to up-well cooler water. The Gulf of America is near 1.0C warmer than normal while the western North Atlantic basin is 1.25C warmer than normal. Actual surface temperatures are in the 86-87F/30-31C range sufficient for explosive intensification for any tropical cyclones passing over the very warm waters.

Two systems are monitored in the North Atlantic tropics this morning. A tropical disturbance east of Bermuda is drifting north with a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, according to NOAA/NHC, this week.

A lot of talk about Super El Nino, but the late summer 2026 upper air pattern is shaped mostly by the influence of strong marine heatwaves (MHW) in the East Pacific and the cooler SSTA zone in-between. Most prominent is Super MHW25A, forming late last year and persisting at record warm levels to date, this warm ocean feature is well-correlated to amplified high pressure centered on the Southwest U.S. and causing this sector of the nation to experience their warmest year on record.

Extremes are evolving in mid-August. Flash drought in a dry climate with excessive heat is underway in the Mid-south U.S. Meanwhile, to the north of the rapidly emerging drought, ring of fire thunderstorms is flooding the Midwest States.