Excessive Heat Warning and Watch areas plus Heat Advisories are expanding as the heatwave of late June/early July continues to develop/expand. Key elements of this heatwave are certainly the afternoon temperatures but adding high dew points, therefore dangerous heat index and warm nights which limit recovery for electric grid systems, a problem that accelerates over a few days and certainly evident across much of PJM, especially PJM-East this week.

The Europe heatwave remains intense and widens into the weekend followed by cooler changes for the northern half of Europe in the 6-10-day period. In the 11-15-day period, GFS and ECM (equally) combine to produce a cooler Northwest Eurasia forecast while Southwest Europe stays hot.

The U.S. population weight CDD forecast has shifted significantly hotter for the week ending July 9th. The consensus is near 100 CDD, almost 15 CDD warmer than the 10-year normal.

The daily North Atlantic basin SSTA analysis is mixed with a large subtropical marine heatwave (MHW) east of Florida and a large North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) south of Greenland extending southwestward to the Northeast Coast.