The Ohio Valley eastward to Pennsylvania is within a significant level of severe weather risk for later today and tonight. HRRR projects strongest radar returns between 7-8PM EDT specifically for North-central Illinois and Indiana to Northern Ohio toward Pittsburgh, PA. In this stretch and slightly southward is the greatest risk of tornadoes. By late evening, the squall line is slightly less intense although aerial coverage broadens through the northern Mid-Atlantic States to southern New England.

Required is a review of the upper air patterns from the 2014-16 “warm blob” years for the PNA region during APR/MAY and JUN/JUL to help time maximum snowmelt/water runoff in key Southwest Canada HYDRO locations. The 2026 “warm blob” has record strength aerial coverage making the 2014-16 “warm blob" years a reasonable analog.

Narelle will weaken moving across Northern Australia this weekend. However, HWRF has a re-intensifying tropical cyclone off the northwest coast next week likely to turn southward and stroke the West Coast of Australia later next week. At landfall, Narelle will be a powerful tropical cyclone.

The NOAA/CPC probabilistic temperature forecast for April maintains the “memory of winter” pattern with anomalous warmth, sometimes very impressive, arcing from the Interior West to the Southeast U.S.