After a drier than normal month of October for much of Brazil, a wetter risk is presented in November for some (not all) parts of Brazil as a strong negative Antarctic oscillation fades and transient Madden Julian oscillation shifts eastward.

In a reversal of pattern, the dryness and anomalous heat in Brazil during much of October is squashed by November rains while the drier (and hotter) pattern shifts to Argentina. The wet bias in November is across East Brazil.

At 8AM EDT, Category-5 Major Hurricane Melissa was located about 55 miles south-southeast of Negril, Jamaica with central pressure 901 MB and top wind 175 mph while moving north-northeast at 7 mph. HWRF/HMON hurricane forecast models lower surface pressure to around 890 MB today forcing maximum wind to around 190 mph.

Major Hurricane Melissa slowly approaches Jamaica over the next 24-36 hours while intensifying to a category-5 major hurricane. Melissa moves northeastward as a major hurricane across Southern Cuba into midweek with the U.S. Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay in the dangerous right front quadrant of the hurricane. The NOAA/NHC rainfall forecast indicates widespread 10-30-inch amounts with high spots near 40 inches causing widespread flash flooding and numerous mudslides in parts of Hispaniola, all of Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba.