The western portion of the North Atlantic basin except for the Gulf of Mexico is shifting dramatically cooler. SSTA are extremely cool off the Northeast. The 7-day change is sharply cooler. Usually, large areas of cool SSTA bias the local climate cool.

The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) shifts across the warm eastern equatorial Pacific during the next 1-2 weeks. U.S. climatology during an MJO phase_7 to phase_8 transition favors a cooler East U.S. regime. Although not super confident, the most likely (ECM ENS mega-cluster ensemble) upper air pattern in 15 days is a new upper trough centered on Ontario to deliver cooler weather into the East U.S.

The Asia/Bering Sea/North America (ABNA) index remains very positive and is the lead climate signal influence on the North America upper air pattern for the first half of June. The +ABNA regime is present when a strong trough is near the Bering Sea and compensated for by an upper ridge over East-central North America.

While the number of hurricanes is diminished during El Nino, damaging hurricanes can still form. Famous moderate-to-strong El Nino year hurricanes include Category-4 Major Hurricane Idalia striking the Big Bend Region of Northwest Florida (2023), Category-4 Major Hurricane Lili striking the Southwest Louisiana Coast (2002), and Category-3 Major Hurricane Bob making 2 landfalls in Rhode Island (1991).