The GFS and CMC ENS are strongest with negative arctic oscillation (-AO) index forecasts for the week of October 2-8 while other models are milder and indicate very weak upper troughs in the East. In fact, the 00Z GFS is alone projecting a buoyant high pressure (blocking) ridge over Greenland. Is the blocking ridge singularly forecast by GFS possible? Yes! Due to the potential latent heat released poleward by up to 7 tropical systems in the northern hemisphere.

The North Atlantic basin remains quiet as (calendar) autumn begins. Upper shear streaks prevent organization of thunderstorm activity in the Bahamas and keep the central North Atlantic ALL CLEAR. Two tropical waves in the outer North Atlantic may organize while turning north, the second just entering the North Atlantic basin this morning, has the best chance. Tropical Storm Faye is barely discernable and weakens drifting west-to-southwestward.

A cold front brings rain and sustains cool weather across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region this week. The front stalls offshore and a low-pressure system develop and stalls and then create a large swath of high wind, coastal flooding, and moderate-to-heavy rain for late week/next weekend most impressively projected by ECM.

The NEW relative Nino34 SSTA index jumped to +2.0C last week and is nearing the +2.25C Super El Nino threshold. The conventional Nino34 index passed the Super El Nino threshold several weeks ago. El Nino continues to intensify.