The East Pacific basin is active including Hurricane Fausto east-northeast of Hawaii and Category-5 Major Hurricane Genevieve, the first category-5 major hurricane since 2024. Genevieve is intense due to passage over an immense marine heatwave. Latent heat release from Genevieve forces a high amplitude high pressure ridge cresting over the Southwest U.S. this weekend. Each system tracks west-northwestward weakening the second half of this week.

ERCOT System record demand this week is likely eclipsed by a substantially hotter weather day occurring late JUL/early AUG based on the latest 15-day ERCOT population weight daily average temperature forecast. During late July Dallas roars to 106F and Houston 101F guaranteeing a much hotter system temperature average compared to the past few days.

At 5AM EDT, Tropical Storm Bertha was located at 29.0N/92.2W or about 95 miles southeast of Lake Charles, LA. Bertha is moving west at 13 mph with top wind near 45 mph and central pressure 1003 MB. Bertha has reformed off the central coast of Louisiana. However, all the action is in the southwest quadrant of the storm where extreme rain from intense thunderstorm activity is taking place.

July 2026 has featured patchy rainfall across Australia, wettest Interior Southeast Australia. Dry soils identifying potential developing drought are located across northwest continent and Southern Queensland/Northern New South Wales.