The record heat across Europe, centered on France, roars on this week likely to last through June before a pattern change that shifts temperatures toward normal. The less hot pattern change is driven by a shift in the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) from positive to negative phase.

A lot of market interest on PJM-East heat risk for late June. The latest 15-day forecast reveals most models indicate heatwave potential. ALL MODELS project 93-95 for Washington, DC. GFS ENS is hottest at 98.

ECMWF is aggressive forecasting above normal windspeeds in Texas to the Midwest States during mid-summer. Additionally, stronger than normal wind speeds are projected in California to the Great Basin region. Below normal windspeeds are projected across much of Canada.

NOAA/NHC indicates a brief upgrade to a tropical storm (Arthur) before moving inland this evening. Tropical cyclone models generally doubt tropical storm intensity. A large area of extreme rain is located east of the depression shifting north and northeast to bring heavy rains to the Gulf States/Southeast U.S. the next 2-3 days.