There is good news in the forecast for Argentina. A stalled Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) in the central tropical Pacific Ocean has an influence on South America climate that increases vertical motion (convective clouds/thunderstorms).

Late summer 2023-24 drought in South America is worsening. Most recently, Argentina has received very little rain while anomalous heat has accelerated drying of soils. This effect has also affected Southern and Northwestern Brazil.

Severe dryness and anomalous heat have shifted over Argentina the past 7-10 days. The 7-day percent of normal rainfall observations across South America reveal little or no rain across much of Argentina and Chile. The Argentina dryness is accompanied by anomalous heat accelerating the drying of soil moisture conditions.

During January 2024, upper ocean heat across the equatorial Pacific Ocean plummeted. The Pacific basin upper ocean heat anomaly has slipped below the El Nino threshold.