NOAA/NHC indicates a brief upgrade to a tropical storm (Arthur) before moving inland this evening. Tropical cyclone models generally doubt tropical storm intensity. A large area of extreme rain is located east of the depression shifting north and northeast to bring heavy rains to the Gulf States/Southeast U.S. the next 2-3 days.

Low pressure area (90L) in Southern Texas will shift northeastward and organize into a center, likely a tropical depression, by 7AM EDT tomorrow of the central Texas Coast. Water temperatures are supportive (83F). Following ECMWF which takes this system northeast-to-north into Galveston Bay tomorrow evening. NOAA/NHC indicates 60% chance of an upgrade to a tropical storm (Arthur) while offshore and prior to reaching Galveston Bay. Forecast models indicate most of the attendant weather, as this system organizes, is east of the storm center.

The 11-15-day temperature anomaly forecasts by ECM and AI GFS indicate significant cold risk in Argentina to southwest and southeast Brazil. Each model indicates the core of the cold is slightly different regions. In each scenario, the southern coffee growing areas of Brazil are very close to the <32F risk zone as indicated by ECM ENS. Other forecast models are cool but not as cold.

A forceful eastward shift of the MJO through the America Tropics causes a stronger mid-continent trough pattern as supported by a stronger -EPO/-WPO forecast in the medium-range supporting cooler changes in the Central U.S./Great Lakes region. The June 19-25 CDD forecast reflects the cooler change.