GFS and ECM are interested in generating heavy rain associated with a tropical cyclone during the 11-15-day period in the eastern Gulf of America and the Atlantic Seaboard. The consistency of this longer-range forecast is increasing. Reliability increases substantially if the threat appears in the 6-10-day forecast by early next week. However, for now, as calendar summer ends, an uptick in the dormant North Atlantic tropical cyclone season is expected.

Western Europe observes warmer than normal winter season. A consensus of HDD forecasts for the NOV-MAR cold season reveals that Western Europe is warmer than the 10-year normal for November through January, near the 10-year normal in February, and near the 30-year normal in March.

GFS and ECM combined are reasonably similar during the next 10 days. Indicated is a northeastward tilt of wet monsoon weather in the Southwest States toward and across the Great Plains.

PJM-East (in fact all of PJM) was hit hard, again, by heatwave conditions this week. The amplified heat stress is the 5th event of the summer season in PJM-East. Uncommon (and un-welcomed) peak heat events in September are likely to continue although with less amplitude.