Generally, there exists potential for significant drying in the Great Plains coupled with anomalous heat in the 1-15-day and 16-30-day periods. ECM leads the charge with other operational models (CMC ENS and GFS ENS) while AI models are somewhat cooler but generally drier, especially eastern Great Plains.

Previously, July 3-9 was forecast as the hottest week of July from the past 10 years at 100 CDD edging the previous peak of 99 in 2016 and 2022. However, the July 3-9 forecast is less hot likely verify near 94 CDD. Suddenly, forecasts expected to shift cooler to the 10-year normal July 10-16 are (now) somewhat warmer lead by hot GFS OP and ECM OP projections.

Excessive Heat Warning and Watch areas plus Heat Advisories are expanding as the heatwave of late June/early July continues to develop/expand. Key elements of this heatwave are certainly the afternoon temperatures but adding high dew points, therefore dangerous heat index and warm nights which limit recovery for electric grid systems, a problem that accelerates over a few days and certainly evident across much of PJM, especially PJM-East this week.

The Europe heatwave remains intense and widens into the weekend followed by cooler changes for the northern half of Europe in the 6-10-day period. In the 11-15-day period, GFS and ECM (equally) combine to produce a cooler Northwest Eurasia forecast while Southwest Europe stays hot.