ECM has introduced a chilly burst across Argentina extending to Southern Brazil in the 11-15-day period. However, the GFS was completely disagreeable rendering a much warmer solution. The following GFS model run shows the cooler result. Therefore, forecast confidence on potential important cold is on the table for the 11-15-day period.

The Climate Impact Company constructed analog forecast did a good job forecasting a cool/wet trough in Western Russia for June. The week 2-4 outlook identifies that pattern change. To compensate for the trough, very warm to hot and dry risk increases in Europe.

Global soil moisture trend during the past 3 months was overwhelmingly much wetter on each continent. Most notable was the expansion of wet soils across East and South Asia especially India. A much wetter change was observed across Japan. In Australia, the southwest and southeast corner were drier while the remainder of the Australian East Coast to northern areas were much wetter.

Currently, warnings for ongoing brush/forest fires are issued for most of South-central to East-central Canada. The hazard has increased dramatically this week. However, wet weather appears early in the 6-10-day period across the western Canadian prairies. In the 8-14-day period, all models indicate potentially substantial rainfall for much of the Canadian Prairies and the remainder of Southern Canada.