During Q4/2024 and Q1/2025 the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) was active. Another weak-to-moderate wave of the convection phase of MJO is forecast into the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean over the next 2 weeks.

Weak or non-existent trade winds to up-well cool waters are starting to regenerate as the southern oscillation index (SOI) shifts to a mostly positive phase during the past 30 days.

A cold north to northeast wind has brought rain and snow to New England this weekend thanks to an offshore storm system made colder by the frigid counter-current to the warm Gulf Stream east and southeast of New England.

While the U.S. AG Belt may receive some patchy wet weather during the medium range, the South America forecast is trending wetter. Rainfall increases in both Argentina and Brazil in the 2-week outlook, possibly too wet.