GFS ENS projects patchy >100F risk across many parts of the U.S. through the next 5 days while much of the nation observes >95F.

The ongoing Europe heatwave has not peaked. The latest 15-dy outlook indicates hottest days for Europe are July 14-15. The heatwave steadily loses intensity after the mid-month peak. The 8-14-day forecast projects expansive wet weather helping to ease the heat. The short-term heat and dryness will continue to worsen Europe Drought.

In Europe, the latest heatwave continues and is centered on France coupled with dryness and accelerating drought. The 15-day population weight daily average temperature maintains the heatwave for 10 days with intensity slightly less than the June episode. In the 11-15-day period relief is on the way as showers and thunderstorms streak into Europe.

Generally, there exists potential for significant drying in the Great Plains coupled with anomalous heat in the 1-15-day and 16-30-day periods. ECM leads the charge with other operational models (CMC ENS and GFS ENS) while AI models are somewhat cooler but generally drier, especially eastern Great Plains.