Graph Cast forecasts dangerous dominant subtropical high pressure early to middle November which could cause over-achieving heat for much of Australia. In this scenario drought in the southwest and east portion of the continent worsens.

Two ALERTS are issued for next week. A likely scenario is the chilly air mass moving across the Northeast States this weekend pushing across the warm western North Atlantic basin causing a low-pressure area to form which winds into a subtropical storm later next week. The slow mover stays offshore but causes strong onshore wind along the East Coast leading to some flooding and certainly beach erosion. A second ALERT is issued for a low-risk tropical cyclone generation in the Caribbean Sea later next week.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) positive phase has strengthened to near +1.00 which is a strong signature. +IOD is a dry climate signal for Australia. Meanwhile, Super El Nino 2026 intensity has levelled off with a daily Nino34 SSTA of +3.14. El Nino has a dry climate signal for Eastern Australia.

Excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms associated with the remains of inland-moving Isaias and Rachel are on display in the Southeast and West into early next week.