During the past 14 days, the 11-15-day rainfall forecasts across the U.S. AG Belt and Europe/Western Russia have shown moderate to dramatic wet/dry bias. In the U.S., forecasts have been too wet across much of the Great Plains and Tennessee Valley (and vicinity) and too dry in the Midwest States.

On Wednesday, the peak intensity of this storm is realized. A large mass of severe thunderstorms is projected across much of the Northern Gulf States with tornado risk from Louisiana to Alabama. Excessive rain and attendant flooding strike the entire Southeast U.S. centered on Alabama.

Due to lack of snow cover, the front end of meteorological winter was very warm. Mid-winter featured one cold outbreak, enough to make an otherwise warmer than normal January appear seasonably cold. The brief cold in January inspired a snow cover advance. However, once the end of meteorological winter arrives, milder winds erase U.S. snow cover causing another warm month in February.

In the AG Market Climate Impact Company Sunday Report, highlighted is the 24-hour rainfall totals on the East Coast of Australia. This is the last day of excessive rainfall causing life-threatening flooding particularly in the Sydney area. The latest GFS forecast indicates more heavy rain next week.