The North Atlantic basin remains quiet as (calendar) autumn begins. Upper shear streaks prevent organization of thunderstorm activity in the Bahamas and keep the central North Atlantic ALL CLEAR. Two tropical waves in the outer North Atlantic may organize while turning north, the second just entering the North Atlantic basin this morning, has the best chance. Tropical Storm Faye is barely discernable and weakens drifting west-to-southwestward.

A cold front brings rain and sustains cool weather across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic region this week. The front stalls offshore and a low-pressure system develop and stalls and then create a large swath of high wind, coastal flooding, and moderate-to-heavy rain for late week/next weekend most impressively projected by ECM.

The NEW relative Nino34 SSTA index jumped to +2.0C last week and is nearing the +2.25C Super El Nino threshold. The conventional Nino34 index passed the Super El Nino threshold several weeks ago. El Nino continues to intensify.

The JUL/AUG 2026 multivariate ENSO index (MEI) was +2.5. MEI is an excellent indicator of the atmospheric response to the equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) regime. When comparing the JUL/AUG 2026 MEI with the past 3 previously most intense El Nino episodes on record, the 2026 signature ranks strongest. Note that after rapid intensification of previous strong El Nino events, there is a tendency of MEI to level off except for the 1982-83 event which peaked in strength well into the second year of the event.