Extended-range forecasts offered beneficial rainfall to the Brazil drought area dating back to September 1st. How are these forecasts tracking? Generally, the wet risk remains although less impactful on the core of the drought area in East-central Brazil. ECM ENS has developing nearby rains during the medium range but leaves East Brazil dry in the latest 15-day forecast. GFS is trending somewhat drier. In the 16-30-day period, ECM is considerably less aggressive forecast wet weather in Brazil biasing the wet anomaly farther to the north.

The best analog suggests that a developing weak La Nina favors ongoing dryness in Brazil during spring reversing wetter once summer arrives. Implied is the torrid Brazil drought worsens during spring with some relief into the new year. In the short-term, dry weather prevails in Brazil through 10 days. However, models are indicating a wetter change for the 11-15-day period carrying into the 16-30-day timeframe.

NOAA reissues their significant wildland fire potential outlook for September and October. Not surprising is the rapid risk increase for many parts of Central and Southern California plus all Northern California. The above average risk extends to Northern Nevada and Southwest Idaho. Added is the western portion of Washington. Wildland fire potential risk is above average near many major city and town locations for Western Washington and California.

The equatorial Pacific Ocean upper-ocean heat is slowly cooling. The cooling trend, if continued, supports a return of La Nina for quarter 4/2025. The Nino34 SSTA is close to the La Nina threshold while the Nino3 SSTA has shifted to La Nina phase.