In Europe, a cool and wet weather pattern will persist into early next week followed by a significant warm-up for Western Europe in the 8-14-day period. Note the usage of CMC ENS, the top skill score for temperature forecasts so far in May!

Super El Nino climate is on the way following the equatorial East Pacific warming of the next several months when, beginning in JUL/AUG/SEP, the northern hemisphere tropical/subtropical latitudes are highly impacted by this phenomenon. Most striking is the likely extreme drought for Indonesia. As impressive is the streak of heavy rain across the central and east tropical Pacific Ocean likely to fuel an intense East Pacific tropical cyclone season.

Upper ocean heat index is between +2 and +2.5 for the past 3-4 weeks which is warmest on record for El Nino events EXCEPT for the 1997 episode. Potential energy for El Nino development and intensification is immense.

During the 8-14-day period, an upper trough forms off the Baja California Coast. A moist southwest flow aloft develops and enables a wet pattern to develop in Northeast Mexico, Texas, and northeastward toward the Ohio Valley. The prevailing dry pattern of this week is pushed to the northwest Great Plains (and Northwest U.S.). In this set-up, particularly with much warmer than normal SSTA in the Southeast Pacific and Gulf of Mexico, heavy rain/severe weather is likely for Texas to the Mid-south States.