The U.S. pattern is fast-moving and produces dramatic thermal contrast from one air mass to the next. An example of the extremes is indicated by ECMWF for next Tuesday afternoon when arctic air surges into Southwest Canada featuring temperatures of -20F to -30F while ahead of the arctic front record warm low 80’s extend to Kansas.

In a statement from earlier today The Australia Bureau of Meteorology emphasized, and Climate Impact Company fully agrees, that the warming of the oceans during the past 50 years could cause interruptions in our historical understanding of ENSO events including making forecasts. Low confidence for second half of 2024 ENSO forecasts!

Stratospheric warming has triggered arctic air across Russia. The frigid air mass expands toward China later this month. In North America, the pattern stays mild the second half of February.

Solar Cycle 25 was off to a roaring start regarding sunspot activity in 2024 but has eased back toward the NASA Solar Cycle 25 peak forecast for late this year and 2025 during the past couple months.