The GFS continues to trend colder in the medium range forecast for the U.S. valid the last third of November. The colder support from climate signals is becoming evident for central North America via negative phase of the West and East Pacific oscillations.

Late season subtropical/tropical trouble is brewing in the North Atlantic basin. A subtropical storm is possible east-northeast of Florida late this week while a full-blown tropical cyclone emerges in the Caribbean Sea.

The subtropical ridge over Southeast Brazil edges eastward in the 6-10-day period which allows a moisture feed from the deep tropics into central continent and a wetter forecast change.

Another very warm month was observed in October 2023 ranking 18th warmest in the 129-year climatology. The warmest states were New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic region plus Arizona/New Mexico each in the MUCH ABOVE normal category. Only 9 of the 48 contiguous states averaged near normal with warmer than normal elsewhere.