Support for excessive rainfall in the Central U.S. during the next 15 days is below average. To produce excessive rainfall, tropical forcing performed by presence of Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) influence is necessary. The MJO is positioned to influence Central U.S. rainfall the remainder of this week but (wet) influenced is diminished in the medium range.

NOAA/SPC indicates associated emergence of severe thunderstorms across Texas and the southern Great Plains later this week. MJO shifts eastward, past the Dateline and toward the Americas (phase_7/phase_8) through the middle third of April. During that time, tropical forcing to enhance Central U.S. rainfall is directed at the southeast Great Plains to the Midwest and then farther eastward (and weakening).

The Nino SSTA regions observed no change last week as neutral ENSO persists. The waters have warmed near the Dateline reaching the El Nino threshold while Nino34 remains neutral. Upper ocean heat in the equatorial East Pacific accelerated earlier this year and lowered slightly in early March. However, upper ocean heat east of the Dateline in the equatorial region has re-intensified and is strongly supportive of an El Nino event ahead.

The March upper ocean heat content in the equatorial Pacific Ocean continues to warm, the warmest since June 2023 during the last El Nino episode. The level of warmth rivals the approaching 2015 El Nino but is well short of the immense 1997 El Nino.