Tropical cyclone activity during 2025 so far has featured tropical cyclone tracks mostly near and off the U.S. East Coast. One possible explanation for lack of activity in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and deep tropics is the persistent (much) stronger than normal trade winds preventing systems from developing.

Europe continues to encounter widespread harsh drought. The drought is related to the NAWH-trough and downstream ridge pattern, common during the past decade especially during the warm season. However, pattern change is on the way.

Erin has significantly cooled the ocean surface east of the Bahamas. SST in the core of the cooler zone are 80-81F, below the threshold to sustain a tropical cyclone. The 7-day SST change in near 2.5C due east of the Bahamas. To the north of Puerto Rico, north of 25N, the SST are somewhat warmer than normal which explains the potential hurricane intensity of tropical cyclone models for 90L.

The soil moisture conditions across cocoa-growing zones of West Africa are in drought for the southern portion. A wet climate and attendant soil conditions are not far to the north but likely to stay north of coastal West Africa.