The long-standing 2020-23 La Nina climate pattern is fading. The southern oscillation index has steadily shifted into the El Nino-like negative phase during May and whopping daily values of -6 the past couple days.

All the ingredients are there, transient intense Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) to shut down trade winds, steady and intensifying negative southern oscillation index (SOI) to produce an El Nino climate, and exceptionally warm subsurface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific to fuel a developing warm ENSO.

The MAY-SEP 2023 U.S. population weight CDD forecast is adjusted. The outlook trends slightly warmer. Note that the outlook is consistently warmer than the 30-year climatology but not as hot as the majority of the last 3 years through July followed by AUG/SEP forecasts which are similar.

An area of low pressure is forming off the East Coast of Georgia along a quasi-stationary frontal system. Plumes of thunderstorm activity are ahead of this low-pressure area. Near the low-pressure area, a plume of water ocean surface water associated with Gulf Stream is in the 27C range.