Inhibiting tropical cyclone development across the western half of the North Atlantic basin in July and into August is evolution of a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT). In the upper troposphere, on average, wind direction is out of the north across the Gulf of Mexico and becomes westerly in the Caribbean Sea and then northerly over Puerto Rico on the back side of an upper-level ridge pattern in the southeast North Atlantic.

Tropical Disturbance 97L has formed in the outer tropical North Atlantic basin. 97L has gained clarity today and may be a little farther west than indicated by NOAA/NHC. The preliminary 5-day forecast by Climate Impact Company (CIC) indicates west to west-northwest travel almost to the far northeast Caribbean Sea and likelihood of intensification to a tropical storm.

A tropical disturbance is forming in the eastern North Atlantic tropics. This system is likely to drift westward and approach the far northeast Caribbean Sea in 5 days. This system should strengthen moving into the central North Atlantic tropics.

ECMWF upper air forecasts for North America and Europe through February with annotated sensible weather interpretations identify ECMWF opinion of the climate pattern through meteorological winter 2022-23.