The tropical cyclone activity for 2024 so far is slightly above normal for the date. However, unfolding (and likely to continue) is the seasonal activity amount lagging well behind the analog years used to generate the 2024 tropical cyclone season forecast.

A brief period of damaging high wind associated with former Hurricane Ernesto is forecast to streak across Ireland and U.K. during the daytime hours on Thursday featuring potential for hurricane force gusts.

The latest Europe/Russia week 2-4 outlook begins with a look at a gigantic marine heatwave centered on the Norwegian Sea and extending northward. By far, the strongest anomalous warming in this region on record and well-correlated to an upper-level high pressure ridge.

Strong upper trough stretched across the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH) to the southeast of Greenland, has compensating trough and ridge patterns upstream and downstream causing high impact weather across North America and Europe into Russia during the next 15 days.