Based on the potential for widespread dryness across the Great Plains identified by Evaporative Drought Demand Index (EDDI), Climate Impact Company is concerned that drought risk is farther east than indicted by NOAA/CPC in their updated long-lead forecasts issued earlier today.

The Evaporative Drought Demand Index (EDDI) remains in the driest (ED4) condition across the central and southern Great Plains. If the climate pattern leading to this condition continues a drought develops quickly in the Great plains during the warm season. The current ED4 conditions are not as widespread as the February 2012 condition ahead of the Midwest drought of summer 2012.

A colder trend for the West-central/Central U.S. initiated last night for next week. The colder change is inspired by increasing snow cover in the Great Plains.

Weather within climate is what's most important to the public and industry. Winter 2021-22 is warmer than normal so far for the U.S. But that assessment is the average of a near record warm December and a cold mid-winter pattern change.