The weekend Kentucky flooding and high wind episode across the Mid-Atlantic States was triggered, in part, due to an eastward shifting convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation. During the past 7-10 days, the effect of the passing MJO event through the tropical East Pacific severely injured the La Nina episode.

Next week's forecast in the U.S. is colder. The HDD count for next week is 249 which is 58 HDD colder than normal. The peak cold of winter Jan. 19-25 was 282 which was 59 colder than normal.

The active monsoon regime unloaded excessive rainfall across Northern Queensland and the North Coast of Australia during the week ending February 10. Moderate to heavy rain also occurred in east/southeast New South Wales and the southeast coast of Victoria.

The ECM 500 MB anomalies 15-day forecast indicates the dynamic upper air pattern continues. The subtropical ridge area splits, returning to home base, across the MHW locations. In-between the split, conditions favoring heavy rain to suppress the intense heat develops in Northeast Argentina/Uruguay centered on the 6-10-day period.