A forceful eastward shift of the MJO through the America Tropics causes a stronger mid-continent trough pattern as supported by a stronger -EPO/-WPO forecast in the medium-range supporting cooler changes in the Central U.S./Great Lakes region. The June 19-25 CDD forecast reflects the cooler change.

The early June seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity across the North Atlantic basin for 2026 are updated. Climate Impact Company, Colorado State University, and Tropical Storm Risk/U.K. each lower their seasonal totals from initial outlooks released in early April.

In the 3-day forecast, heavy rain is centered on North Dakota to the far eastern Canadian Prairies plus Illinois. Severe storms produce much of the rain. An unusually high tornado risk for North Dakota today. An equally high tornado risk tomorrow is centered on the Iowa/Illinois/Wisconsin region. St. Louis to Chicago tornado risk is indicated for Thursday.

Earlier today, the once per month ECM “monthlies” were issued and the JUL/AUG forecast implicate the Great Plains for a hot and dry weather pattern.