Positive phase global atmospheric angular momentum (+GLAAM) linked to a large increase in tropical convection across the warming waters of the equatorial Pacific has arrived likely to remain persistent throughout the El Nino episode. +GLAAM influence is most influential between phase_6 and phase_7 and expected to remain steady in that way into August.

A temporary cooler pattern across Europe ahead while Western Russia turns hotter. However, once August arrives, hot weather regenerates in Europe biased farther eastward this time around.

Multivariate ENSO index (MEI) is accelerating into strong positive phase implying El Nino climate is strengthening. The rate of increasing intensity is close to the MAY/JUN/JUL 1997 signature, eventually leading to the strongest El Nino on record. Interestingly, JUL-97 was cold across much of Australia. The difference? Note the much cooler SSTA surrounding Australia during JUL-97 encouraging upper-level low pressure troughs to deliver chilly air. During middle 2026, marine heatwaves surround Australia encouraging milder high pressure.

GFS ENS projects patchy >100F risk across many parts of the U.S. through the next 5 days while much of the nation observes >95F.