Despite support for a warmer East U.S. 11-15-day forecast from climate signals, GFS stays chilly in the East. The chilly East regime is compensated by very warm weather in Southwest Canda to the West U.S.

In June, during development of the strongest El Nino’s on record (82-83, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24), high pressure ridging has tendency to amplify and drop anchor on Southwest Canada leading to a dry and warm start to meteorological winter. West/Southwest Canada has endured a snowy 2025-26 winter snow season. A rapid melt would cause serious flooding.

The Nino SSTA regions have each passed the El Nino threshold. A NOAA announcement of El Nino onset should occur during May. The subsurface equatorial East Pacific anomalous warmth is immense, and the attendant Kelvin Wave continues to intensify.

After a short-term freeze threat in the U.S. Corn Belt more winter weather is on the way for the Northwest Great Plains and Canadian Prairies Spring Wheat areas. Beginning Thursday and lasting early next week, a snowy/windy pattern emerges. Morning low temperatures are pushed into the 20’s for several mornings across the Northwest Great Plains and 10’s/20’s for the Canadian Prairies.