The upper ocean temperature anomaly structure in the eastern equatorial Pacific indicates a new moderately deep cool layer. The warm layer just beneath the surface is beginning to weaken. The long-term ENSO outlook for later in 2025 remains in the neutral phase. However, as observed all of 2025, some models are indicating La Nina development, and a slight cooler trend has developed supportive of the La Nina outlier forecasts.

NOAA/CPC has updated their monthly long-lead probabilistic temperature and precipitation forecasts. Additionally, a new Seasonal Drought Forecast is issued. Of note, is the precipitation outlook for both August and AUG/SEP/OCT. The outlooks indicate a high probability of above normal rainfall in the Southeast U.S. The August probability forecast for above normal rainfall in the Southeast U.S. is exceptionally confident.

Despite proximity to land, a westward drifting low pressure area across the northern Gulf of Mexico where SST is 86-88F guarantees development of a rainstorm targeting Louisiana. Potential for tropical storm force wind near the coast, especially southeast Louisiana is likely.

An ambitious convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) is located north of Australia. Meanwhile, a persistent deep upper trough rides across the southern oceans not far from Australia. If the upper trough can entrain at least some of the MJO energy, an amplified trough delivering stormy weather and potential colder temperatures would emerge.