To illustrate the eagerness of GFS to forecast low pressure and increased tropical cyclone risk in the Gulf of Mexico was apparent earlier this month with low pressure risk appearing in the 8-14/11-15-day period. By comparison, ECM offered no threatening low pressure for the entire 15-day forecast during the first 10 days of June. Today’s forecast by GFS indicates low pressure in the 10-12-day period while ECM maintains all clear.

Climate Impact Company often mentions optimum climate normal (OCN) which identifies 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year climatology due to the vast differences in these shorter-term historical weather records with standard 30-year climatology. During 2016-24, the North Atlantic basin has shifted into a consistently more active than normal tropical cyclone pattern which represents an OCN.

In the Great Plains, summer heat is on the horizon. The forecast remains wet across all major crop areas (except western Great Plains wheat) well into next week. However, the wet belt is lifting northward in the 8-14-day period and the risk of >95F/35C is developing and expanding.

The Nino34 SSTA constructed analog forecast through May 2027 reveals a substantial change from last month. The potential for weak El Nino later this year is erased, and neutral ENSO is preferred into 2026. 2 of the 4 analogs favor a weak La Nina risk for later this year. Neutral ENSO is likely for the 2025 North Atlantic hurricane season. Next year, the constructed analog forecast is similar with the previous outlook favoring continued neutral phase with potential for weak La Nina.