Of added importance to the forecast is cold weather. Focused primarily on the 8-14-day period, a chilly early April is indicated especially for the Eastern Corn Belt. The risk of <32F extends to the Tennessee Valley and across the Midwest U.S. with widespread 20’s reaching the Ohio Valley in the 11-15-day period.

While 11-15-day forecasts are disagreeable on whether the heavy rain pattern fades in Northeast/East Australia, the 10-day forecasts are confident. The ECM ENS indicates up to 12 inches of rain for Southwest Queensland in their latest 10-day outlook.  

The North Atlantic basin remains warmer than normal but not as warm as one year ago. The main development region (MDR) has cooled to near normal. A marine heatwave in the subtropical North Atlantic remains but has weakened while very warm SSTA continue in the Caribbean Sea and parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

The Modoki index continues to strengthen as La Nina characteristics persist near the Dateline while warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific is dramatic. Currently, one of the strongest La Nina Modoki episodes on record is strengthening.