The ITCZ in the outer tropical North Atlantic is becoming very impressive. The beginning of real tropical cyclone season (August 1st) is vividly approaching! Forecast models indicate potential for 2 tropical waves to emerge in the east-central tropics midweek and track west or west to northwest but, due to dry air, unlikely to develop into a tropical system.

The ECMWF and AI 4Cast Net V2 ECM ENS are in excellent agreement on regenerating significant heat for Mid-August this time affecting the West/Northwest U.S. while excessive heat regenerates in the Northeast U.S.

The latest global sea surface temperature anomaly analysis reveals the presence of intense marine heatwaves off the East Asia Coast extending eastward past the Dateline. The MHW is linked to recent heat in Japan and East China. MHW's in the western North Atlantic is linked to the East U.S. current heatwave. MHW's in the Mediterranean Sea and west of Europe contributed to extreme heat in June across Europe and a much wetter regime in July. MHW's are also influencing Australia climate.

The hot weather is impressive through the weekend focused on the Ohio Valley today and Northeast/Mid-Atlantic tomorrow, but extreme alert-4 conditions for dangerous heat emerge Sunday and Monday (Fig. 2) in the Southeast U.S. On Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, extreme alert-4 conditions widen across the Southeast U.S. where this heatwave is most intense.