The North Atlantic basin is quiet through mid-August (since July 1st) due to the subsidence pattern in the deep tropics and subtropics in the vicinity of the Bahamas. The subsidence is well-represented by the low relative humidity in the middle atmosphere (600 MB) in these regions.

Crop damage and electricity cutbacks are accelerating due to the China drought and continued hot and dry weather pattern.

The North Atlantic regional SSTA vary widely. Off the U.S. East Coast waters have warmed to +0.66C, a change of +0.40C during the past 30 days. In the main development region (MDR) for North Atlantic hurricanes located in-between the Caribbean Sea and northwest coast of Africa the SSTA is marginally warm (+0.30C) and while warmer than 2-4 weeks ago, the past week has shown slight cooling. In the Gulf of Mexico, the basin is near normal and has cooled 0.24C during the past 30 days.

The U.S. Drought Monitor identifies rare severe drought across east and southeast New England. The drought has strengthened during mid-summer due to limited rainfall and periods of extreme heat. However, seasonal forecasts for late summer/autumn 2022 are wetter than normal.