News
10/16/2023, 9:34 am EDT

El Nino Peak Likely During Northern Hemisphere Winter

Upper ocean heat to sustain El Nino remains plentiful although weakening slightly in recent months and becoming choppy in character. Implied is that mature stage of El Nino may be just ahead.
10/12/2023, 10:20 am EDT

North Atlantic Upper Shear Increasing Rapidly as TC Season Begins to Fade

Diverging upper air currents extending southward and into the tropics from an immense jet streak across the U.S. has increased upper shear dramatically and lowering risk of late season tropical systems. Sean was downgraded to a tropical disturbance due to this factor.
10/09/2023, 8:00 pm EDT

October 2023 Global Soil Moisture Observations And Forecast

Global soil moisture trend during Q3/2023 featured MUCH DRIER changes across already drought-stricken Mexico and into Texas plus North/Central Brazil to Argentina all related to the El Nino warm oceans of the far eastern tropical Pacific. Wetter soils were observed across the Northeast U.S. where record rainfall occurred and the Southwest U.S. In South America, El Nino-like conditions affected Southeast Brazil and Chile.
10/05/2023, 8:08 am EDT

Tropics Present High Impact Weather This Weekend and Next Week

Next week a major rainfall event is indicated across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. A frontal system stalls over the northwest/north Gulf while to the south a tropical system emerges. The combination of the two events leads too heavy to extreme rain.