Next week remains chilly as above normal heating demand is inspired by Ohio Valley cold. However, the warmer trend initiated yesterday for Oct. 21-27 continues as the HDD trend lowers again.

The latest week 2-4 outlook sustains a wet pattern across Australia likely to accelerate wet soil conditions affecting most of the continent and inspired by negative Indian Ocean dipole and La Nina.

The Q4/2022 climate forecast for Australia stays wet in the East largely due to a persistent La Nina climate. There is risk of excessive rains on parts of the East Coast to finish 2022. La Nina (and negative Indian Ocean dipole) will ease early in 2023.

The warm phase of the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation coupled with a constricting polar ice cap have caused a dramatic warm-up of mid-latitude to tropical ocean temperatures providing increased upper ocean heat igniting stronger hurricanes.