The Nino SSTA regions are all within neutral range entering July. Recent warming in the Nino12 region off the northwest coast of South America has eased back into the neutral range.

The NOAA 2-day forecast track indicates Chantal turns northward across central North Carolina later today and weakens completely drifting across Chesapeake Bay late tomorrow. The heavy rain/flood risk shifts to north-central South Carolina and central North Carolina today and across Eastern Virginia to near Philadelphia tomorrow.

Tropical Depression 3 is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm today, turn north-to-northwestward, and strike the upper coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected on the upper South Carolina Coast/Lower North Carolina Coast late tonight and Sunday. The next storm name is Chantal.

Regarding ENSO, the equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat anomalies stay marginally warm in JUN-25. Implied is no risk of La Nina return, although NCEP CFS V2 is boldly forecasting La Nina for late 2025, with marginal support pointed toward El Nino.