One of the strongest climate signals during DEC/JAN/FEB representing extreme temperature across North America is the Asia/Bering Sea/North America (ABNA) index. The ABNA index 16-day forecast indicates a strong positive phase spike next week and representative of a widening anomalous warm pattern in North America.

Significant warming is observed in the equatorial Pacific Ocean subsurface during late January. The observation and trend support a rapid ending to La Nina in February with increased risk of El Nino developing during the northern hemisphere spring season.

A larger concern for the Northeast Corridor Coast this weekend is high wind propelling high sea conditions as the offshore system produces hurricane force wind with 50-60 MPH gusts reaching the coast and 40+ mph away from the coast.

Record heat in New South Wales and Victoria is ongoing this week. A temporary break in the heat for the Southeast Coast is projected for early-to-middle next week while extreme heat shifts north to Queensland. In the 11-15-day forecast, GFS indicates the extreme heat returns to Southeast Australia.