During the past 14 days, temperature forecast bias for the 16-30-day period was markedly less cool using the ECM vs. CFS V2 (model). The CFS V2 forecasts have averaged nearly 5F too cool from Nebraska to Virginia. ECM also produced better Western Canada forecasts.

During April, particularly late in the month, extreme heat was observed across parts of India to Southeast Asia with extremes ranging from 111F to 119F and featuring all-time records. The extreme heat occurred across an intensifying drought zone.

Dynamic meteorological models generally have increased error during the cold-to-warm transition season. The 30-day skill scores of leading models are generally consistent with long-term averages for this time of year. However, the short-term (7-day) forecast skill has recently lowered.

Yesterday’s NOAA/USDA drought analysis across Kansas reveals worsening conditions. Although harsh extreme to exceptional drought is not present, almost all of Kansas (97.9%) is abnormally dry to severe drought. Drought worsening is most apparent in the 3-month change which reveals an increase of 38% to 65% of D1 drought conditions and 5.5% to 17% of D2 (severe drought) conditions.