Comparing CFS V2 and ECM 16-30-day Forecast Temperature Bias

Charts of the day: ECM Vs. CFS V2 day 16-30 temperature bias.

Discussion: During the past 14 days, temperature forecast bias for the 16-30-day period was markedly less cool using the ECM vs. CFS V2 (model). The CFS V2 forecasts have averaged nearly 5F too cool from Nebraska to Virginia. ECM also produced better Western Canada forecasts.

Week-2 Ahead Forecast valid May 12-18, 2024: Nationally, cooler trend continues.

Discussion: The cooler solutions continue. The outlook remains cool across the Great Plains with a cooler change on the West Coast. Western Canada also trends cooler. The wet weather forecast shifts slightly eastward in Texas and into Mississippi.

Week-3 Ahead Forecast valid May 19-25, 2024: Cooler West.

Discussion: Upper trough is cutoff and anchored over the southern Great Lakes region. The U.S. thermal pattern is temperate. The forecast trend is cooler in the West. Patchy wet weather is forecast across parts of the eastern half of the U.S.

Week-4 Ahead Forecast valid May 26-June 1, 2024: Starting to re-warm.

Discussion: ECM maintains persistence; other models show a warmer possibility in the West and East Coast.