The NOAA/WPC 7-day quantitative precipitation forecast indicates potential for excessive amount centered on the Mid-South U.S. Included is several days of severe weather!

The preliminary population weight CDD anomaly forecast by month for April to October 2022 indicates a similar structure to each of the last 3 seasons whereas the season starts marginally warm, becomes quite hot during mid-to-late summer and eases back toward normal by October.  

Seasonal tropical cyclone outlooks are issued by early April. A contribution to the forecast process is the tropical North Atlantic index which represents the SSTA pattern between the Caribbean Sea and Northwest Africa Coast and has observed significant cooling during the past 30 days.

One way to generate a flash drought is presence of an amplified upper-level high-pressure ridge during summertime across a region hampered by deep layer (10-200 CM) soil moisture deficit. Precipitation deficits over a 9-month (or more) period leads to deep layer soil moisture shortages.