Fig. 1: Morning satellite view of the North Atlantic basin.
Discussion: In the outer tropical North Atlantic basin a tropical disturbance (94L) is drifting due west with some organization (Fig. 1). SST are sufficiently warm in this low latitude to sustain 94L and the shear axis is well to the north and showing signs of weakening. NOAA/NHC stated that tropical cyclone development has increased from 20% (yesterday) to 50% today for days 4-5 ahead. The projected Climate Impact Company potential track is based on a consensus between the GFS and ECM operational models which indicate a tropical storm riding the north coast of South America early-to-middle of next week and possible hurricane late next week in the far southwest Caribbean Sea. Tropical cyclone models indicate a westward track to the north of the CIC projection (Fig. 2) and a wide array of intensity possibilities but strengthening is certainly indicated (Fig. 3). An area of showers and thundershowers has formed well north of Puerto Rico. This area is not expected to become a tropical cyclone although forecast models are widening the attendant rain area over the weekend.
Fig. 2: Tropical cyclone model tracks for 94L.
Fig. 3: Tropical cyclone model intensity forecast for 94L.