Earlier today the GFS ENS “clusters” at 360 hours were most favorable toward a cold/snowy regime in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast U.S. (Fig. 1). Heavy snow would beneath the upper trough as arctic air is not likely part of this scenario. Other clusters were either weaker (Fig. 2) or favoring coastal rain (Fig. 3).
Fig. 1-3: The 360-hour GFS ensemble clusters from earlier today identifying various scenarios for the East Coast in 15 days.