Natural gas prices spiked to $5.46 on December 5th anticipating a frigid East U.S. 6-10-day period. Arctic air was widespread across most of the eastern half of the U.S. The PJM System (Chicago to Washington) average temperature was a frigid 18F on December 14-15. Typical of arctic air presence when snow cover is minimal, a following warm-up is easier to generate. By December 18th the high populace PJM sector warmed above normal.

Deep upper trough forms over Eastern Europe during late December. The result is a significant cold. Arctic air gathers over Northwest Russia and some of that air mass is pulled into Europe. A vigorous storm track across the Mediterranean Sea with the northern portion all snow including Southeast Europe, The Black Sea region, and Southwest Russia.

The persistent “atmospheric river” storm track slamming the U.S. West Coast, particularly California, into early January leaves the Great Plains very warm and without much precipitation. The ECM dry duration forecast is up to 360 hours across parts of the Dakotas, Western Corn Belt, and southwest Great Plains wheat growing areas. Record warm temperatures are likely from Nebraska/Kansas to Texas during the warm pattern.

The U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast for weeks 4-6 ahead continue to favor a mild climate, especially in the East. The consensus of operational models are trending colder, near the 10-year normal, for the week ending January 8th. So…operational models are pointing toward a colder regime whereas “weeklies” ignore that shift to maintain the warmth. Two AI models are cold in the 3-4-week period.