The Nino SSTA regions have each passed the El Nino threshold. A NOAA announcement of El Nino onset should occur during May. The subsurface equatorial East Pacific anomalous warmth is immense, and the attendant Kelvin Wave continues to intensify.

After a short-term freeze threat in the U.S. Corn Belt more winter weather is on the way for the Northwest Great Plains and Canadian Prairies Spring Wheat areas. Beginning Thursday and lasting early next week, a snowy/windy pattern emerges. Morning low temperatures are pushed into the 20’s for several mornings across the Northwest Great Plains and 10’s/20’s for the Canadian Prairies.

The latest ECM and CFS V2 temperature analog forecasts for June are agreeable with hot risk in the Northwest/West U.S. and temperate eastward. The Climate Impact Company constructed analog has wider aerial coverage of the western warmth and a cooler East U.S. solution.

Negative Pacific North America (-PNA) pattern assures a cool regime in the West clashing with very warm temperatures in The Central and East to cause daily severe weather outbreaks into the weekend. Today, severe thunderstorms are forecast by NOAA/SPC from Texas to the Midwest States pulsing eastward to New England. The greatest tornado risk is located from Des Moines, IA to Chicago, IL. Tornado risk is evident in Oklahoma.