DEC-25 was the 5th warmest early winter in the 131-year historical record. Almost the entire West observed the warmest December on record while the Northeast was seasonably cold. The U.S. precipitation pattern during DEC-25 ranked 37th driest on record featuring the driest December on record in Oklahoma with near record dryness for surrounding states, a classic La Nina signature. Meanwhile a wet La Nina bias was exceptional across the Northwest States.

Australia starts January with hostile brush fires northeast of Melbourne while flooding rains from a tropical system (Koji) pounce on Queensland. So far, JAN-26 has produced unusually hot weather across Interior Southeast Australia where the brushfire regime emerged.

The latest U.S. gas population weight HDD forecast identifies the mild week ahead shifting much colder Jan. 16-22 and moderating back to near normal late month. AI and CFS/ECM each indicate another cold week to start February followed by milder weather. Arctic air risk is not indicated (for the U.S.) during the period.

The AI Graph Cast ECM ENS is the least wet biased model. Today’s 15-day AI GC percent of normal rainfall outlook for South America reveals a drier than normal pattern across most of Brazil and Central Argentina while the 24-hour change suggests a sneaky wet regime in Northern Argentina.