During the past week, wet weather was observed in California to the Great Basin, Interior Northwest, and Midwest U.S. The GFS precipitation forecasts for this period are notably too wet in Southwest Canada (where no rain or snow occurred) and the Mid-south to Midwest and Northeast States. The ECM ENS verification has a larger area of wet bias including the Southeast States and Great Plains.

No rain is in the forecast for Central/East Brazil (and Central Argentina) through the next 7+days while heavy rain shifts across Parana. In the U.S. a cool and dry air mass spreads across the Great Plains and Midwest States .

Despite support for a warmer East U.S. 11-15-day forecast from climate signals, GFS stays chilly in the East. The chilly East regime is compensated by very warm weather in Southwest Canda to the West U.S.

In June, during development of the strongest El Nino’s on record (82-83, 97-98, 15-16, and 23-24), high pressure ridging has tendency to amplify and drop anchor on Southwest Canada leading to a dry and warm start to meteorological winter. West/Southwest Canada has endured a snowy 2025-26 winter snow season. A rapid melt would cause serious flooding.