All forecast models are agreeable on a building high pressure ridge which delivers a hot mid-October to Australia. On the northern fringe of the ridge, monsoon rain affects northwest/north continent. However, East/Southeast Australia is very dry.

The latest North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) 15-day forecast reveals an evolving moderate-to-strong negative phase usually causal to a blocking high pressure over Greenland and a compensating upper trough into the Northeast U.S. Forecast models have resisted that forecast solution over the weekend, however, at 12Z today, the GFS follows the -NAO guide.

Climate forecasts indicate wetter weather ahead for the Brazil drought area in Q4/2025. The ECM week 3-4 forecast projects a wet anomaly across the drought area. The latest Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) forecast indicates an emerging moderate-strength phase_8 which supports a wetter climate shift for South America, specifically Brazil, by week-3.

The 15-day temperature and precipitation outlook across Brazil reflects the influence of a torrid drought on climate. Centered over the Brazil drought area, the ECM ENS forecasts extreme heat for much of the next 15 days while the rainfall forecast continues to shift into the arid category.