La Nina suddenly displays life with notable strengthening during the past 1-2 weeks. All Nino SSTA regions are within the La Nina threshold. The catalyst to the cooler change is a consistent and strengthening positive phase of the southern oscillation index (+SOI) causing a steady increase in up-welling trade winds and shifting the global climate convincingly into a cold ENSO regime.

A wet weather shift from Argentina and more recently central continent into Central/East Brazil initiates in the 6-10-day period according to the "most likely" mega-cluster ensemble. The wetter shift should remain in-place well through early meteorological summer 2025-26 while Argentina shifts drier.

An evolving strong negative Scandinavia (-SCAND) index develops over Northwest Eurasia the remainder of November causing a colder pattern-change most notable next week and possibly lingering to late month. -SCAND is the catalyst to expanding snow cover, well below normal now, but expanding across Scandinavia to the Baltic Region and much of Western Russia in 15 days.

Today’s week 4-6 outlook by ECM/CFS V2 consensus is slightly warmer than the 10-year normal while all AI models are considerably colder. The ECM/CFS V2 most closely matches the Climate Impact Company constructed analog (CIC-CA) forecast which favors cold North-central and warmth to the south.