ECMWF has shifted their Nino34 SSTA forecast to El Nino by MAR/APR/MAY 2026. ECMWF is the only forecaster, for now, with the El Nino risk. Since the 2015-16 El Nino episode, ENSO has fluctuated between weak La Nina and weak El Nino looks and that trend seems to be continuing.

Operational models (GFS and ECM) are remarkably similar with the extended range (days 6-10) forecast of Tropical Disturbance 97L. NOAA/NHC indicates a high probability of a named storm within 48 hours, and tropical cyclone models indicate a steady westward track with intensification to a hurricane in 4-5 days.

The temperature forecast bias among two leading “weeklies” forecast models is clearly too hot in the 16-30-day period across the West and Central U.S. The explanation for the warm (ECM) bias is presence of an unusually strong summertime polar vortex over Greenland with a southward extending upper trough occasionally visiting the West U.S.

The 12-week Evaporative Drought Demand Index (EDDI) reveals U.S. areas most susceptible to fire risk for late meteorological summer/early autumn. The highest alert, ED3/ED4 is spread across central and southern California, much of the Great Basin, and Arizona.