Narelle will weaken moving across Northern Australia this weekend. However, HWRF has a re-intensifying tropical cyclone off the northwest coast next week likely to turn southward and stroke the West Coast of Australia later next week. At landfall, Narelle will be a powerful tropical cyclone.

The NOAA/CPC probabilistic temperature forecast for April maintains the “memory of winter” pattern with anomalous warmth, sometimes very impressive, arcing from the Interior West to the Southeast U.S.

Thematic of the 12Z GFS is maintain warmth in the West days 6-10 beneath a titanic upper-level high pressure ridge which extends north and northeastward in the 11-15-day period causing the Canadian polar vortex to dive southeastward toward the Northeast U.S. The 12Z GFS is loaded with arctic sir and the shifting polar vortex forces the big chill into the Northeast Corridor in the 11-15-day period.

A low latitude cutoff low-pressure system west-northwest of Hawaii entrained tropical moisture during the past week causing heavy thunderstorms across Hawaii and the attendant latent heat release amplified the downstream upper ridge pattern which is bringing record warmth to the West U.S. To compensate for the upper ridge, a deep trough formed in the East-central U.S. early this week causing a widespread severe weather outbreak.