As of mid-February, 73.7% of the U.S. is in a dry-to-drought condition up from 66.2% in mid-December according to NOAA. Harsh D2-D4 drought is observed in 22.6% of the U.S., an increase of almost 10% during the past 2 months. The equatorial East Pacific subsurface is warming dramatically encouraging El Nino ahead! Two La Nina to El Nino first half of year analogs are 1997 and 2023 which featured dryness Iowa JUN-SEP having U.S. Corn Belt implications.

The rapid warming of the Nino12 SSTA region has caused a wet bias to western South America in recent weeks. However, the moisture from the warm water/high moisture source region is entrained into vigorous upper troughs moving across South America sweeping heavy rain into Brazil while leaving Argentina dry the next 1-2 weeks.

AIFS ENS indicates an arctic air mass loitering across Siberia in the 6-10-day period while an upper trough embedded in the subtropical jet stream is sufficiently intense to bring heavy rain to East China and Japan. After the rain the cold air mass shifts to China although moderating.

After a dry summer, wet weather spread across much of Australia after mid-February and consolidates in the East in March. Anomalous heat continues across the drought area across Southern Australia.