A wetter pattern is expected to develop during the next 15 days due to a Southwest U.S. wet monsoon moisture feed from 4-Corners arcing through the Missouri Valley and eastward. Graph Cast 15-day rainfall forecasts indicate heavy rain risk centered on the Missouri Valley and eastward throughout the Atlantic States. The 24-hour change highlights the wetter trend in the Midwest States while the Mid-south U.S. is drier and hot. Consequently, Midwest soil moisture increases while drought risk expands from Western Oklahoma eastward toward Arkansas and includes Northern Texas.

An area of thunderstorm activity across warmer than normal water rests northeast of the Bahamas. Development is not expected through early next week. However, a tropical wave is forecast to move into the waters east of the Bahamas and northwestward from there during the 6-10-day period possibly becoming a tropical cyclone.

The ongoing campaign by Climate Impact Company promoting marine heatwaves as catalysts to drought and heat continues. Summer of 2026 has certainly produced two extreme examples: 1.) The Western Europe heatwaves and 2.) The Western U.S. heatwaves.

AI WX Next 2 is used to identify the emerging Europe heatwave this week spreading eastward next week. ECM ENS is used in the 11-15-day period maintaining a Southern Europe heatwave. The Southern Europe heatwave is likely to persist through August.