The early June seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity across the North Atlantic basin for 2026 are updated. Climate Impact Company, Colorado State University, and Tropical Storm Risk/U.K. each lower their seasonal totals from initial outlooks released in early April.

In the 3-day forecast, heavy rain is centered on North Dakota to the far eastern Canadian Prairies plus Illinois. Severe storms produce much of the rain. An unusually high tornado risk for North Dakota today. An equally high tornado risk tomorrow is centered on the Iowa/Illinois/Wisconsin region. St. Louis to Chicago tornado risk is indicated for Thursday.

Earlier today, the once per month ECM “monthlies” were issued and the JUL/AUG forecast implicate the Great Plains for a hot and dry weather pattern.

During May 2026, the prevailing upper air pattern featured an upper trough across western continent with a compensating ridge in the East. The upper trough was causal to heavy rain across central and eastern continent during May while the upper ridge warmed New South Wales. The wet pattern during May was primarily related to the proximity of the Madden Julian oscillation.