The cold season 2021-22 HDD forecast indicates each month is in-between the colder 30-year normal and warmer 10-year normal. The front-end of the cold season (October and November) has been adjusted somewhat warmer due to milder forecasts in the East issued yesterday in the latest month 1-3 outlook.

Henri is forecast to move farther west before a north turn in about 36 hours. Consequently, tropical cyclone models are closer to southeast New England by early next week. Henri will strengthen to a hurricane during the north turn and maintain minimal hurricane strength southeast of New England early next week.

Climate Impact Company upgrades the intensity risk forecast for Tropical Storm Grace to a potential category 3 major hurricane by later Friday in the southwest Gulf of Mexico.

A close look at emerging Tropical Depression 6 indicates a developing system. A tail of convection extends into the deeper tropics implying entrainment of high moisture content tropical air generally associated with intensification. This system has convection in all quadrants around an inner core, also a sign of organization.