We're in a pattern that may last well into summer...semi-permanent low-pressure east-southeast of Brazil and an attendant upper trough extending northwestward into Brazil causing steady rainfall compensated for by atmospheric subsidence causing dryness and heat in Southeast Brazil to Northeast Argentina raising drought concerns there.

For now, the U.S. looks mostly warm south of snow cover for the last 1/3 of December. However, given a developing -NAO pattern some of the Canadian chill may want to thrust southward. Meanwhile a cold pattern change is indicated for Europe next week.

The MJO has been mostly dormant in the vicinity of Indonesia or westward since October. However, a slow eastward shift with intensification is underway the past 1-2 weeks. MJO has shifted toward the Pacific Dateline and a further eastward drift is indicated through the middle third of December. Upper ocean heat in the equatorial West Pacific is responding as warmth increases and shifts to the Dateline.

A strong cold front brings widespread high wind from the Ohio Valley to the East Coast today while a series of winter storms are ahead in the West, most focused on California.