Not convenient is the developing hot/dry bias by the GFS (and all models are showing this problem) during the past 2+ weeks for the Central/Midwest U.S. Maximum temperatures are hot at times but nowhere near 2-meter forecasts offered primarily by the GFS.

The North Atlantic basin is steadily warming. However, there are regions with robust warming and cooling that combine and lead to the warm anomaly.

A stalled cold front will trigger excessive rainfall across the Mid-south U.S. to the Carolinas midweek through the weekend. GFS indicates >5 in. of rain in Arkansas and Tennessee while ECM projects higher amounts. Flooding is expected with serval damaging wind events as the heavy rains break the recent heat.

Europe soil moisture anomalies continue to indicate a drying trend due to the ongoing heatwave and attendant dryness. The precipitation outlook across central and southern Europe through the next 4 weeks remains mostly dry.