Multivariate ENSO index (MEI) is accelerating into strong positive phase implying El Nino climate is strengthening. The rate of increasing intensity is close to the MAY/JUN/JUL 1997 signature, eventually leading to the strongest El Nino on record. Interestingly, JUL-97 was cold across much of Australia. The difference? Note the much cooler SSTA surrounding Australia during JUL-97 encouraging upper-level low pressure troughs to deliver chilly air. During middle 2026, marine heatwaves surround Australia encouraging milder high pressure.

GFS ENS projects patchy >100F risk across many parts of the U.S. through the next 5 days while much of the nation observes >95F.

The ongoing Europe heatwave has not peaked. The latest 15-dy outlook indicates hottest days for Europe are July 14-15. The heatwave steadily loses intensity after the mid-month peak. The 8-14-day forecast projects expansive wet weather helping to ease the heat. The short-term heat and dryness will continue to worsen Europe Drought.

In Europe, the latest heatwave continues and is centered on France coupled with dryness and accelerating drought. The 15-day population weight daily average temperature maintains the heatwave for 10 days with intensity slightly less than the June episode. In the 11-15-day period relief is on the way as showers and thunderstorms streak into Europe.