Required is a review of the upper air patterns from the 2014-16 “warm blob” years for the PNA region during APR/MAY and JUN/JUL to help time maximum snowmelt/water runoff in key Southwest Canada HYDRO locations. The 2026 “warm blob” has record strength aerial coverage making the 2014-16 “warm blob" years a reasonable analog.

Narelle will weaken moving across Northern Australia this weekend. However, HWRF has a re-intensifying tropical cyclone off the northwest coast next week likely to turn southward and stroke the West Coast of Australia later next week. At landfall, Narelle will be a powerful tropical cyclone.

The NOAA/CPC probabilistic temperature forecast for April maintains the “memory of winter” pattern with anomalous warmth, sometimes very impressive, arcing from the Interior West to the Southeast U.S.

Thematic of the 12Z GFS is maintain warmth in the West days 6-10 beneath a titanic upper-level high pressure ridge which extends north and northeastward in the 11-15-day period causing the Canadian polar vortex to dive southeastward toward the Northeast U.S. The 12Z GFS is loaded with arctic sir and the shifting polar vortex forces the big chill into the Northeast Corridor in the 11-15-day period.