The next issue is an evolving rainstorm in Florida and along the Atlantic Seaboard developing this weekend and lasting for much of next week. The culprit is Tropical Disturbance 97L, currently located over northwest Haiti, and given an 90% chance of tropical cyclone development after 48 hours (by NOAA/NHC).

During the past 30 days (July), the 2-meter temperature prediction verification for North America is best forecast by ECM ENS while the volatile GFS is last. The Artificial Intelligence Forecast System (AIFS) was 4th of 5 leading models.

NOAA/SPC indicates risk of damaging wind due to severe thunderstorms from Des Moines to Nashville today. The HRRR model specifically defines the threat area beginning early afternoon on the southeast Iowa/northeast Missouri state line. The line moves southeastward across western Illinois mid-afternoon to southern Illinois late afternoon and into southwest Indiana by early evening.

La Nina development stalled during the past 10 weeks or so as the subsurface cool waters required to ignite cold ENSO lost half their April intensity. However, during the past 7-10 days, cooling has resumed indicating La Nina development has returned. The Nino34 SSTA has cooled to -0.13C and appears to be trending toward the -0.50C La Nina threshold based on the 30-day change of -0.55C.