Erin has significantly cooled the ocean surface east of the Bahamas. SST in the core of the cooler zone are 80-81F, below the threshold to sustain a tropical cyclone. The 7-day SST change in near 2.5C due east of the Bahamas. To the north of Puerto Rico, north of 25N, the SST are somewhat warmer than normal which explains the potential hurricane intensity of tropical cyclone models for 90L.

The soil moisture conditions across cocoa-growing zones of West Africa are in drought for the southern portion. A wet climate and attendant soil conditions are not far to the north but likely to stay north of coastal West Africa.

Primary impacts on the U.S. East Coast by Hurricane Erin are riptides beginning today and becoming widespread on Tuesday. In the riptide area, increasing and/or high waves and onset of beach erosion is likely. The conditions which become widespread tomorrow will continue through Thursday. The onset of tropical storm force wind is Wednesday for coastal North Carolina and possibly Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard on Thursday.

U.S. medium range 2-meter temperature anomaly forecasts during the past 30 days were most efficient utilizing the new AIFS ENS and ECM ENS in both the 6-10-day and 11-15-day periods. The highly visible GFS forecast lags with second lowest skill scores. Other AI models (4Cast Net V2) also produced lower skill scores. The Canadian Ensemble (CMC ENS) has performed quite well this summer season.