In the 3-day forecast, heavy rain is centered on North Dakota to the far eastern Canadian Prairies plus Illinois. Severe storms produce much of the rain. An unusually high tornado risk for North Dakota today. An equally high tornado risk tomorrow is centered on the Iowa/Illinois/Wisconsin region. St. Louis to Chicago tornado risk is indicated for Thursday.

Earlier today, the once per month ECM “monthlies” were issued and the JUL/AUG forecast implicate the Great Plains for a hot and dry weather pattern.

During May 2026, the prevailing upper air pattern featured an upper trough across western continent with a compensating ridge in the East. The upper trough was causal to heavy rain across central and eastern continent during May while the upper ridge warmed New South Wales. The wet pattern during May was primarily related to the proximity of the Madden Julian oscillation.

The western portion of the North Atlantic basin except for the Gulf of Mexico is shifting dramatically cooler. SSTA are extremely cool off the Northeast. The 7-day change is sharply cooler. Usually, large areas of cool SSTA bias the local climate cool.