12/11/2018, 9:36 am EST

Wet Soils, Snowmelt and Heavy Rain = NC/VA Flooding Late Week

North Carolina/Virginia soil moisture is historically wet after a rainy warm season in 2018. The weekend heavy snowfall event contained up to 3 in. of water in some areas. A warmer pattern accompanied with heavy rain will cause a flash flood risk for late this week.
12/10/2018, 10:33 am EST

Weekend Mid-Atlantic Snowfall Followed by Late Week Heavy Rain/Flooding

The water content of the weekend snowstorm exceeded 2 in. across a large area. Coupled with already excessive soil moisture a late week warm-up and rainstorm is likely to cause serious flooding.
12/07/2018, 1:58 pm EST

Siberian Arctic Air Connection to North America About To End

The Siberia to North America Arctic Express has been - more or less - intact during late autumn and responsible in-part for the expansive North American snow cover and attendant cold. The arctic air connection is about to dissipate but may return in 3-4 weeks.
12/03/2018, 1:22 pm EST

Climate Factors: Stratospheric Warming and Transient MJO

The East Pacific is El Nino warm BUT the atmosphere is not reacting. So other climate factors govern the pattern. A strong stratospheric warming event mid-month could trigger new arctic air while a transient MJO favors warming mid-month before the next cold outbreak later in December.