Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) strengthens and shifts east to the Indian Ocean into early November and causes a shake-up in the prevailing precipitation pattern of the past 30 days to emerging heavy rain in Texas this week, widespread heavy rain and severe weather centered on the Midwest next week while an atmospheric river pattern shifts into the Northwest Coast by days 11-15.

The Black Sea region will turn wetter, especially next weekend and beyond. In the 11-15-day period, temperatures will shift somewhat colder. The chill is sufficient to cause early season snow across the region.

There is a cooler forecast change for Europe in the 11-15-day period as indicated by the 15-day population weight average daily temperature forecast (Fig. 1). Combing GFS and ECM yield chilly temperature anomalies in the 11-15-day period across Southeast Europe (Fig. 2). The ECM ENS indicates widespread risk of <32F/0C in Central Europe eastward in the 11-15-day period.

Lack of rainfall accelerating drought has adversely affected Indonesia palm oil, India wheat, and most recently cocoa growing areas in tropical West Africa. The palm oil damage is devastating with drought encouraging fires and record low water levels. The Indian wet monsoon was about 12% of normal enabling drought in west and south wheat growing areas. Cocoa growing areas in West Africa tropics recently developed quickly.