During November 2023, negative velocity potential was responsible for gully-washer rains over Northeast Africa and in the Central Pacific near the Dateline. Positive values associated with a dry climate stretched across the eastern tropical Indian ocean to Western Australia plus western South America.

A weighty arctic air mass develops, expands, and intensifies across Russia this week. Next week, the air mass migrates southward reaching Afghanistan and all of Tibet to Northeast China. In the 11-15-day period, the arctic air is released into China moderating to the south of snow cover.

Upper ocean heat in the equatorial Pacific Ocean to the east of the Dateline is increasing rapidly. Implied is peak El Nino 2023-24 strength is just ahead arriving for mid-winter in the northern hemisphere.

The ECM 6-10-day temperature anomaly forecast across Eurasia identifies a gigantic arctic air mass with a 5-day temperature anomaly averaging 20-40F below normal. The ECM 6-10-day risk of <0F threshold is projected across all of Russia to Northern China.