Great Lakes ice is emerging and should spread rapidly given the long duration cold pattern ahead. Open water moderates arctic air. However, once ice is sufficiently expansive the moderating effects cease.

High focus on ERCOT (and everywhere else) for next week’s arctic outbreak. In Texas, the outbreak lasts January 19-24 and peaks on January 21. Texas will add snow and ice storm concern during that time. Note the ECM ENS 6-10-day forecast of <0F risk!

Extremely dry weather has anchored over Northeast Argentina/Southeast Brazil during early-to-middle January and the 10-day rainfall outlook from GFS maintains the dry signature as soil moisture conditions deteriorate rapidly.

As a review, the Evaporative Drought Demand Index (EDDI) can offer early warning of agricultural drought, hydrologic drought, and fire-weather risk by providing near-real-time information on the emergence or persistence of anomalous evaporative demand in a region.