Upper trough stretched across Northern Argentina produces two expansive areas of rainfall including western and southern Argentina plus expanding Southeast Brazil. Argentina is cooler than normal.

The Northeast U.S. weekend storm continues to trend downhill in the Mid-Atlantic States. Highest wind is across Long Island to the New Jersey Coast tonight and stays that way tomorrow. Gusts on the coast should exceed 60 mph in pots with high waves, storm surge, and flooding.

The GFS and CMC ENS are strongest with negative arctic oscillation (-AO) index forecasts for the week of October 2-8 while other models are milder and indicate very weak upper troughs in the East. In fact, the 00Z GFS is alone projecting a buoyant high pressure (blocking) ridge over Greenland. Is the blocking ridge singularly forecast by GFS possible? Yes! Due to the potential latent heat released poleward by up to 7 tropical systems in the northern hemisphere.

The North Atlantic basin remains quiet as (calendar) autumn begins. Upper shear streaks prevent organization of thunderstorm activity in the Bahamas and keep the central North Atlantic ALL CLEAR. Two tropical waves in the outer North Atlantic may organize while turning north, the second just entering the North Atlantic basin this morning, has the best chance. Tropical Storm Faye is barely discernable and weakens drifting west-to-southwestward.