A warmer than normal Gulf of Mexico implies low-level atmosphere moisture levels are abundant. When southerly flow from the Gulf interacts with mid-latitude storms heavy precipitation is likely centered on the East-central U.S. for late winter and into spring.

Where it rains, it pours is thematic of the Jan. 22-28 rainfall pattern across South America soybean, wheat and corn growing areas. Up to 4 in. of rain was observed in far northwestern Argentina and a small area near the Uruguay state line. However, forecasts are dry again for the Argentina drought region the next 10 days.

Daily soil moisture anomaly analysis reveals erosion of the Argentina drought on the southern side of the affected area. Recent rainfall has been impressive in that zone. However, farther northward, the remainder of the Argentina drought area remains intact. A new area of drought concern is across the northwest and north Brazil Second Corn Crop zone. Deep layer soil moisture deficits have increased in the heart of the Argentina drought zone.

ENSO forecasts by leading models project El Nino by June 2023. Historically, when NOV/DEC/JAN are still in moderate La Nina phase, the chance that El Nino forms the following boreal summer season is only 25%