Primary impacts on the U.S. East Coast by Hurricane Erin are riptides beginning today and becoming widespread on Tuesday. In the riptide area, increasing and/or high waves and onset of beach erosion is likely. The conditions which become widespread tomorrow will continue through Thursday. The onset of tropical storm force wind is Wednesday for coastal North Carolina and possibly Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard on Thursday.

U.S. medium range 2-meter temperature anomaly forecasts during the past 30 days were most efficient utilizing the new AIFS ENS and ECM ENS in both the 6-10-day and 11-15-day periods. The highly visible GFS forecast lags with second lowest skill scores. Other AI models (4Cast Net V2) also produced lower skill scores. The Canadian Ensemble (CMC ENS) has performed quite well this summer season.

ECMWF has shifted their Nino34 SSTA forecast to El Nino by MAR/APR/MAY 2026. ECMWF is the only forecaster, for now, with the El Nino risk. Since the 2015-16 El Nino episode, ENSO has fluctuated between weak La Nina and weak El Nino looks and that trend seems to be continuing.

Operational models (GFS and ECM) are remarkably similar with the extended range (days 6-10) forecast of Tropical Disturbance 97L. NOAA/NHC indicates a high probability of a named storm within 48 hours, and tropical cyclone models indicate a steady westward track with intensification to a hurricane in 4-5 days.