06/17/2022, 8:31 am EDT
In the 6-10-day period valid for next week over half of the U.S. is at risk of >100F maximum temperature. The focus remains on Texas, the Mid-south and Southeast U.S. California to Arizona is added!
06/12/2022, 1:53 pm EDT
Currently, the sunspot number of solar cycle 25 for May 2022 continues well-ahead of the original forecast. The original forecast by NASA repeated the relatively weak solar cycle 24 signature. However, the monthly sunspot number has continued to out-perform the original forecast dating back near 2 years.
06/01/2022, 4:15 pm EDT
This afternoon NOAA/NHC initiated Tropical Disturbance 91L. This system should track northeastward from the Yucatan Peninsula across the far southeast Gulf of Mexico later this week. The upper shear pattern is quite strong but if the shear eases as expected the reasonably warm surface of the southeast Gulf of Mexico should allow strengthening of 91L to a named storm (Alex).
05/31/2022, 11:30 am EDT
An area of low pressure is situated over far Southeast Mexico and is expected to consolidate into a more organized center in about 48 hours off the north coast of Belize. At that time, ECMWF indicates this system is likely a tropical depression. This system drifts north-northeastward on the back side of the North Atlantic subtropical ridge late this week and crosses water sufficient to allow intensification to a tropical storm.
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