Vividly displayed to start meteorological summer is the influence a large area of wet soil conditions has on the prevailing weather pattern. The mid-to-late spring heavy rains have turned the Mid-south U.S. (and vicinity) soaking wet. The 15-day temperature anomaly outlook by AI Graph Cast projects a large area of suppressed heat risk across the wet soil region (and vicinity).

A notable difference between the AI Graph Cast and ECM ENS rainfall forecasts for North America during the past 30 days. The AI Graph Cast is too dry across the U.S. AG Belt while ECM ENS is too wet especially in Iowa.

Upper ocean heat across the tropical North Atlantic basin rivaled the warmest values on record established last year to start 2025. However, upper ocean heat is shifting less impressive as June approaches and is now below the record warmth of the past 2 years and within the upper limit of the 2013-22 climatology. A notable decline is observed in May.

During the past month, both the GFS and ECM have produced dramatic too wet forecast bias across Southern Canada and too dry forecast bias across much of the U.S. AG Belt. The ECM is also too wet on the U.S. East Coast.