The oceanic ENSO projection favors the possibility of El Nino late this year while the atmospheric ENSO forecast is neutral phase. Dynamic models favor neutral ENSO phase although tilted toward La Nina returning if any deviation. Analog and dynamic models are, at least a little, disagreeable.

April 2025 was (nationally) the 12th warmest April on record. The entire Gulf region, Southeast U.S., and most of the East Coast averaged MUCH ABOVE normal. North Carolina and Virginia observed their 2nd warmest months of April in the 131-year period of record. Only the North-central U.S. States were not warmer than normal each averaging near normal for mid-spring.

The largest area of drought is across the Southwest U.S. as we enter early warm season in the U.S. Drought is also present, although not as intense, across the west/northwest Great Plains. Interestingly, the most severely dry evaporative drought demand index (EDDI) is not in the primary drought areas, rather the Mid-Atlantic region and Florida.

The convection phase of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) centered near and west of the Dateline in April, developed an eastward extension during the past 10 days resting in the eastern tropical North Pacific. The emergence of this feature is the catalyst to the heavy rains centered on Texas and the southern Great Plains in late April. MJO forecasts indicate a stagnant (MJO) pattern for the first 1-2 weeks of May.